Three of my published calls, each written up at the time, under my own name, with the price on the day. Every date and figure in them can be checked.
Apple — 28 September 2016, at $113.95
$28.49 after the 2020 split.
Written up on Seeking Alpha when the market priced Apple as a business past its best: about 12 times forward earnings, against 20 for the S&P 500. The argument was that at that price you were paying for the iPhone and getting everything else, Services included, for free. Over the next ten years free cash flow per share grew about 3.8 times and the market came to pay three times as much for it: about 28% a year to September 2026, before dividends.
Read the case study (PDF) · The original article
Mastercard — 15 September 2016, at $99.39
Part of a Seeking Alpha series on building a Buffett-inspired portfolio of the world’s best businesses. Readers said it was too expensive at 29 times earnings; my answer was that a business earning over 100% on its tangible capital deserves more than a market multiple. Free cash flow per share grew about fivefold over ten years and the multiple barely moved: the business did the work, about 19% a year to September 2026, before dividends.
Read the case study (PDF) · The original article
Lam Research — October 2018, at $141.27
$14.13 after the 2024 split.
Published as Too Cheap to Ignore on SumZero, and picked up by ValueWalk and Barron’s, while the whole chip sector was being sold. Lam traded at about five times EBITDA, priced like a boom-and-bust chipmaker when its numbers said otherwise. The two-year target of $300 was reached in October 2020, on earnings within 1% of the forecast. About 47% a year to September 2026, before dividends.
This is my personal investing journal, written for information only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past returns are no guide to future returns.